L'effet COVID sur les cryptomarchés L'impact de la pandémie sur le niveau de succès des transactions de drogues

Dans les mois qui ont suivi le début de la pandémie de COVID-19, l'European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA) a observé une utilisation accrue des cryptomarchés, ce qui amène les chercheurs à se demander si les cryptomarchés constituent un canal plus pratique pour la distribution des drogues illicites puisqu'il évite le contact physique. Cependant, les mesures pour contrer la propagation du virus ont mené à la fermeture des frontières et il est possible que les cryptomarchés aient été affectés négativement par ce changement. Cette étude vise à mesurer et à comprendre le taux de réussite des transactions sur les cryptomarchés pendant la pandémie de COVID-19, en recourant à des données autorapportées qui documentent le résultat des transactions sur les cryptomarchés. Pour collecter ces données, nous avons lancé une plateforme où les participants peuvent saisir des informations sur leurs activités antérieures sur les cryptomarchés. L'échantillon se compose de 591 entrées valides reçues entre le 1er janvier et le 21 août 2020. Des régressions logistiques sur les données des cryptomarchés avant et après l'arrivée de la pandémie ont permis d'observer les changements. Le nombre de transactions infructueuses a augmenté parallèlement à la propagation mondiale de la pandémie. La nature internationale et intercontinentale des transactions est associée à un échec de livraison. Les cryptomarchés de drogues ont probablement été perturbés en raison de la pandémie.Alternate :In the months following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Monitoring Center for Drugs and Drug Addiction (2020) observed an increased use of cryptomarkets, leading researchers to question whether cryptomarkets constitute a more practical channel for the distribution of illicit drugs since they make it possible to avoid physical contact. However, measures to counter the spread of the virus also led to border closures and it is possible that cryptomarkets were negatively affected by this change. This study measures and evaluates the success rate of cryptomarket transactions during the COVID-19 pandemic, using self-reported data on the outcome of cryptomarket transactions. To collect self-reported data on cryptomarket transactions, we launched a platform that allowed participants to provide information about past cryptomarket activities. The sample consists of 591 valid self-reports received between January 1, 2020, and August 21, 2020. Logistic regressions on cryptomarket data before and after the onset of the pandemic allowed us to observe any changes. We found that the increase in the number of failed transactions parallelled the global spread of the pandemic, while the international and intercontinental nature of the transactions was associated with delivery failure. It is probable that cryptomarkets for drugs have been disrupted due to the pandemic.Alternate :En los meses posteriores al inicio de la pandemia de COVID-19, el European Monitoring Center for Drugs and Drug Addiction (2020) observó un aumento en el uso de criptomercados, lo que llevó a los investigadores a cuestionar si los criptomercados constituyen un canal más práctico para la distribución de drogas ilícitas ya que se evita el contacto físico. Sin embargo, las medidas para contrarrestar la propagación del virus llevaron al cierre de fronteras y es posible que los criptomercados se hayan visto afectados negativamente por este cambio. Este estudio tiene como objetivo medir y comprender la tasa de éxito de las transacciones de los criptomercados durante la pandemia de COVID-19, utilizando datos autoinformados que documentan sus resultados. Para recopilar los datos autoinformados sobre las transacciones de los criptomercados, hemos lanzado una plataforma donde los participantes pueden ingresar información sobre sus actividades pasadas en los criptomercados. La muestra consta de 591 autoinformes válidos recibidos entre el 1 de enero de 2020 y el 21 de agosto de 2020. Las regresiones logísticas sobre los datos de los criptomercados antes y después del inicio de la pandemia nos permitieron observar los cambios. El número de transacciones fallidas ha aumentado en consonancia con la propagación mundial de la pandemia. La naturaleza internacional e intercontinental de las transacciones está asociada con fallas en la entrega. Es probable que los criptomercados de drogas se hayan interrumpido debido a la pandemia.

The success rate of online illicit drug transactions during a global pandemic.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In the months following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA; 2020) observed an increased use of cryptomarkets, which led them to question whether cryptomarkets constituted a more convenient channel via which to distribute illicit drugs without any in-person contact. However, as more countries' borders closed, the likelihood is that cryptomarkets have been negatively impacted. We aim to measure and understand the success rate of transactions on cryptomarkets during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, through recourse to self-reported data that documents the outcome of cryptomarket transactions. METHODS: To collect self-reported data on cryptomarket transactions, we launched a platform where participants can enter information about their prior activities on cryptomarkets. The sample consists of 591 valid self-reports that were received between January 1st, 2020 and August 21st, 2020. RESULTS: The number of unsuccessful transactions increased concurrently with the global spread of the pandemic. Both the international and inter-continental nature of the transactions and the severity of the crisis in the vendor's country are significantly associated with delivery failure. CONCLUSIONS: Drug cryptomarkets may have been disrupted due to the pandemic. The results lead to two opposing explanations for unsuccessful transactions. One explanation for the lower success rate is the inability of drug dealers to deliver on past promises that were made in good faith, while the second points towards opportunistic and abusive behaviour by drug dealers.

Preliminary findings of the impact of COVID-19 on drugs crypto markets.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has had unprecedented consequences on the world economy. The impact of the pandemic on illicit drug market remains scant. We expose the potential consequences the COVID-19 pandemic could have on the ability of people who use drugs to source their illicit drugs via cryptomarkets. METHODS: We analyzed 262 self-reported submissions of illicit drug transactions on the darkweb. The self-reports include the date of the transaction, the types of illicit drugs bought/sold, and whether the shipment of the illicit drugs succeeded, had issues (ex. unusually long delivery, an error in the type of drug shipped, quantity or concentration of the drug), or failed. RESULTS: Between January 1st, 2020 and March 21, 2020, successful deliveries represented 60% to 100% of transactions. Starting on March 21 however, the share of shipments that had issues or failed increased rapidly and represented a majority of all shipments. At the peak of the market disruption, the successful deliveries represented only 21% of all transactions. CONCLUSION: Illicit drug transactions on the darkweb were disrupted at the same time as lockdowns were put in place in the United States and in the United Kingdom. While no causation link can be established, the correlation suggests that lockdowns could have disrupted drug cryptomarkets activities. We discuss the market disruption in light of the literature.